The cost of a jug is not knowable when you buy it
An ag retailer commits to a season in the fall. The programs that decide what that season cost — early order, prepay, volume bands, market share, loyalty — settle the following spring, on bases that overlap and windows that do not align. The honest position is that the effective cost of a product is unknown at the moment of the purchase commitment, and is therefore unknown at the moment you quote a grower.
That is not a data-entry problem. It is a modeling problem: nothing in the purchasing system holds the stacked structure, so nobody can answer what the next thousand units actually cost.
Market share is the one that bites
Volume programs fail gently — you land in a lower band and earn less. Market-share programs fail violently. Qualification depends on your mix against competing chemistries, so a single large grower switching can drop you below a threshold and reprice the whole season retroactively.
The exposure is calculable in-season if you are tracking mix against thresholds. Almost nobody is, because it requires competitive context the purchasing system does not hold. Flagging the accounts whose behavior moves you across a threshold, while there is still season left, is where the money is.
What good looks like
- Entitlement claimed above 98%, including the programs that pay small amounts across many products — the ones most often abandoned.
- Effective net cost modeled for above 95% of committed volume, so a grower quote reflects the season you actually bought.
- Threshold risk flagged with runway rather than discovered in the true-up.
How RevUpra runs this
Manufacturer programs are modeled as stacked rules with their own bases, hierarchies and windows, so effective net cost per product is a computed number rather than an annual reconstruction. Market-share positions are tracked in-season against thresholds, with the accounts driving the exposure named. Accruals are computed from transaction lines against locked periods so the season-end true-up is a confirmation rather than a surprise, and grower-side program credits settle against the same engine that tracks what the manufacturer owes you.